Dutch mortgage interest rate forecast for 2026

Buying a home in the Netherlands always starts with one important question: what will happen to mortgage interest rates? Even a small change can make a big difference in your monthly payments. For international professionals living and working here, understanding how these rates work is key to making confident decisions about when and how to buy.

Two main forces will shape the Dutch mortgage market in 2026. The first is the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), which decides the basic cost of borrowing for European banks. Think of this as the base price the bank pays to get money before they lend it to you. When the ECB lowers that base price, banks can offer lower costs for your mortgage as well. The second factor is economic uncertainty, such as inflation or slower growth. If prices in Europe stay higher for longer, or if the global economy isn’t stable, mortgage rates could rise again.

With more than 15 years of experience helping expats navigate these shifts, A&H Finance turns complex financial updates into clear, practical advice. We help you understand what economic trends mean for your personal situation and how to act at the right time.

In this article you will discover:
– Current mortgage rate levels in december 2025
– Two scenarios for 2026: rate drop or slight increase
– How mortgage rates affect expats
–Why work with A&H Finance

Current mortgage rate levels in december 2025

Now that we are at the end of 2025, Dutch mortgage rates have slightly decreased. The main reason is that the European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its official rate several times.

Think of the ECB rate as the basic cost banks pay when they borrow money. When it becomes cheaper for banks to borrow, they can naturally offer mortgages to you at better prices.

Average Dutch mortgage rates (December 2025):

1–5 years fixed: 3.3%–3.8%*
10 years fixed: 3.4%–3.7%*
20–30 years fixed: 3.8%–4.5%*

*Keep in mind that interest rates are consistently fluctuating.

For expats with a stable income and a valid Dutch residence permit, these rates are generally identical to those for local buyers.

If your property qualifies for the National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG), available up to around a maximum purchase price €470,000, you may benefit from a small discount of 0.1–0.2%, along with extra financial protection.

Two scenarios for 2026: rate drop or slight increase?

Nobody can predict the future with certainty, but most economists expect two possible paths for 2026:

Scenario A: the optimistic outlook

In this scenario, the long-term interest rate (10 years fixed) drops slightly.
The reason: the ECB may continue lowering its base rate in 2026. Imagine it as the central bank making it cheaper for banks to get their money, to lend you money at a lower cost as a property buyer.

If inflation also stays low and the economy grows steadily, mortgage rates may ease to around 3.0–3.5% for shorter fixed terms. Keep in mind that this chance is relatively low.

Scenario B: Longer term fixed rates slightly increase in 2026

In this case, inflation or global uncertainty (for instance, energy prices or geopolitical tensions) could push long-term rates slightly higher perhaps to 4.0–4.6% for 20–30-year fixed mortgages.
This wouldn’t represent a major spike, but it would signal that “current lower rate” may not last as long as hoped.

Several global and economic factors could still influence Dutch mortgage rates in 2026. Inflation is expected to stay close to the 2% target, but if prices rise faster than expected, investors usually demand higher interest rates as compensation. Trade tensions also play a role: ongoing negotiations between major economies such as the US, Europe, and China create uncertainty that tends to push rates upward. Concerns about increasing government debt in several European countries, partly due to higher defence spending, add further pressure. And finally, unexpected events, such as a potential AI market correction or geopolitical conflicts could trigger financial market turbulence. In each of these cases, more uncertainty generally means higher interest rates.

What does this mean for you?

The difference between these two paths can translate into hundreds of euros per month on your mortgage. Because the market is unpredictable, choosing the right moment to lock in your rate can make a big difference in your monthly expenses. When choosing an interest rate fixed period, the best thing you can do is weigh up whether to lock in your interest rate for a longer period with more certainty and an often higher interest rate or to choose for a low interest rate and a shorter fixed period, with more risk. No one can predict and be sure of the mortgage rates, with all sorts of unexpected events that make the future course of mortgage interest rates uncertain.

A good thing to ask yourself is, would higher interest rates at the end of the fixed rate period be a financial burden for you?

How mortgage rates affect expats

Do expats pay higher rates?

No. Expats who have a stable income and valid Dutch residence permit typically get the same rates as local buyers. Your financial profile determines eligibility, not your nationality. However, Non-EU income or temporary contracts may limit loan-to-value ratio. Normally you could borrow up to 100% of the purchase price, if the mortgage lender senses risks, the amount you could borrow becomes less. The key factor is your paperwork: proof of income, contract duration, and residence status. Here you can read about what expats need to secure a Dutch mortgage.

How does the 30% ruling help my borrowing power?

The 30% ruling is a Dutch tax advantage for certain international employees. It allows you to receive 30% of your salary tax-free.
Because lenders usually consider this benefit when assessing your income, your borrowing capacity increases by roughly 10–15%.

For example, if you earn €100,000 per year, your effective “mortgage income” might be treated as €115,000–€120,000, even though your monthly interest rate remains the same. Just make sure your ruling is renewed on time, it directly influences how much you can borrow.

When could refinancing make sense in 2026?

If your current mortgage rate is above 4.5%, 2026 could be a great time to refinance if rates fall to around 3 to 4%.
A lower rate can reduce your montly mortgage payments, save interest over the coming years and improve affordability or cash flow. For instance, refinancing a €400,000 mortgage from 4.5% to 3.5% can cut your monthly payments by roughly €300.

The best timing may be early 2026, following the first ECB meetings of the year, but its always good to discuss you situation and future plans with a mortgage advisor and keeping in mind that unexpected events make mortgage interest rates uncertain.

Why work with A&H Finance

At A&H Finance, we’re independent mortgage advisors with over 15 years of experience helping expats settle in the Netherlands.

We translate complex Dutch mortgage rules into clear, practical advice, so you can buy or refinance your home with confidence. Our team understands the specific challenges of international professionals, from the 30%-ruling to cross-border income verification.

Ready to discover your mortgage options for 2026?

Speak with one of our experienced expat advisors at A&H Finance Amsterdam for a free, no-obligation consultation.